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Property Press Briefing
发布时间:2020-8-31 13:09:07 来源:

Sales commentary, not BofA research



l  Friday: NKY -1.41%, HSI +0.56%, SHCOMP +1.6%, KOSPI +0.4%

l  Dow +0.57%, SPX +0.67%, Nasdaq +0.6%

l  Friday US again closed at record highs for the 6th straight session

l  US: Fed’s Jackson Hole Reboot to Lift Inflation Faces Skepticism

l  US: NYC Commercial-Property Sales Fall 54%, Crush Tax Receipts

l  CN: Gov held meeting w/ several loval officials; emphasized to stabilize housing prices

l  CN: Blackrock becomes 1st global asset mgr to win regulatory approval to set up mutual fund unit in CN

l  CN: Largest 5 bank ed provisions against bad debt to brace for future losses due to Covid-19

l  CN: Issue revised tech export restrictns, Bytedance potential TikTok sale needs CN approval

l  SINO-US: Microsoft, Walmart Offer Joint TikTok Bid, Vying W/ Oracle (BBG)

l  SINO-US: US adds another 11 firms to the China list related to China's military

l  SINO-US: CN: Trump putting Republican Party above US; Trump: America wld take biz out of CN

l  SINO-US: Google, Facebook Dump Hong Kong Cable A/f U.S. Security Alarm

l  SINO-EUR: CN to possibly conclude EU-CN investment accord by end 2020

l  EUR: Berlin Protest Against Virus Constraints Ends in Police Clashes

l  HK: 2ndary home prices fall 1.21% as CCL falls to 178.71 points

l  HK: Local cases cont low Fri/Sat/Sun: 10/16/10 (popn 7.5m). Daily discharges well exceeding new cases

l  JP: J-REIT M&A!! Japan Retail Fund (8953) merger w/ MCUBS MidCity, announced post close Friday

l  JP: Berkshire may boost hldgs in JP co’s up to 9.9%; Stakes in 5 JP trading co’s pass 5%

l  JP: ETFs saw $6.5Bn net inflows in July, è YTD inflows to $51.5Bn ($ 37Bn in all of 2019)

l  JP: 600 provisional virus cases Sunday, 845 Saturday

l  Davos World Economic Forum’s annual gathering in Jan postponed

l  Argentina Extends Lockdown Measures Until Sept. 20


l  HOLIDAYS TODAY: Malaysia, Philippines, UK 


TODAY:  Property is NOT a boring sector. BIG NEWS IN JAPAN. While everyone else is focused on PM Abe’s resignation, I would turn your attention to the Japan Retail Fund (8953) merger w/ MCUBS MidCity, announced after the close on Friday.  I’ve been at this long enough to have seen a few waves of REIT consolidation in my time.  Needless to say, you want to be in the targets.  M&A (or fear thereof) can be a great motivator for mgt teams to deliver better shareholder value & governance.  Readers of the daily will know I’ve been banging on a/b Invesco 3298 for some time.  I would have been running (a v imperfect) pair w/ NBF 8951.  Invesco is 36% ytd, w/ a 5.5% div yld & no blocking stake, to NBF’s 19% ytd, w/ a 3.4% div yld & there is still plenty of scope for the BoJ to buy Invesco while being almost capped out in NBF.  Back to the merger, which will result in a renaming to Japan Metropolitan Fund Investment Corp, while I’ve had feedback on governance etc (& I doubt, like CCT hldrs that MCUBS holders will want to become more retail focussed & it looks to me that MCUBS investors will think it too great a discount (resulting in a ¥45b goodwill writedown – an offset to retail asset sales at discounts?) & these stocks will now trade in tandem until March ‘21) I do wonder to what extent this is a reflection of the current retail climate becoming more difficult.  While investors have historically preferred to do their own asset allocation (vs diversified names), no doubt we’ll here the ‘bigger is better’ mantra as larger names see more liquidity, more index weight/buying, more BoJ activity etc.  I predict interesting times ahead & more so with the Berkshire headlines today.  Either way, time to dust off the list of smaller J-REITs



Finally: The world is becoming more urban. But the more residents they attract can make city living difficult by creating stressful & tense conditions. The U.N. predicts the planet will add 2.5bn people by 2050, w/ a/b 90% of this surge occurring in Africa & Asia. To underscore the worldwide shift toward cities, by 2030, Earth will have 43 megacities – those w/ >10m residents – & most of these places will be in the developing world, compared to 33 megacities today. But it’s now clear that Covid-19 poses a profound challenge to a significant modern megacities trend. NYC has suffered about 23% of all US deaths from the virus; London’s share of UK deaths is also 23%. Density has been the enemy in most plagues. So, will the suburbs become more attractive after this crisis?  (USA Today, MSN, FT)




Asks local govts to stabilize housing px in meeting b/w MOHURD & local govt officials from Shenyang, Changchun, Chengdu, Yinchuan, Tangshan & Changzhou.

IKEA plans to invest Rmb200m in China in manufacturing, design & logistics. (SH Daily)

Shanghai-based cross-border e-commerce site Ymatou to open 1,000 offline stores in 100 Chinese cities w/in 3 yrs, to cover 200m-300m emerging consumers in 3rd-tier cities. (CN Daily)

CIFI vows to surpass Rmb230b sales tgt in 2020, won’t turn to major price cuts to boost sales. (Sina)

CIFI / Henderson JV to devp Chengdu resi site, GFA 246,979m2. Land cost Rmb1.8b, or Rmb7441/m2. (Co)

Gemdale 1H rev Rmb19.73b, NI Rmb2.98b, EPS Rmb66cts. (Co)

Greenland buys 66% stake in Guangxi Const. Engineering for Rmb3.58b. (Sina)

Vanke may tap China REITs for asset growth: Earnings Outlook. (BBG)

Oceanwide Holdings Gets 12.6b Yuan From Sunac for Asset Sales (BBG) Asset sales from Oceanwide unit in Wuhan included projects in BJ & SH.

Hong Kong/Macau

Macao's general unemployment rate for May-Jul 0.2ppt to 2.7% from Apr-Jun. (Xinhua)

SHKP plans to launch sales of Wetland Seasons Park phase 3 in Sep, total 318 units. (HKET)

Henderson / HK Ferry sold 30 units in Seacoast Royale on Sat. (HKET)

CCL Index 1.21%WoW, Mass Index 1.34%WoW, Small & Medium Index 1.14%WoW, & Large Index ↓↓1.57%WoW. (Centaline)

ESR Cayman lockup ending Sept 6 as stock outperforms benchmark. (Co)


CapitaLand Mall Trust got approval in-principle from SGX-ST for issuance of 2.78b new CMT units as part of merger w/ CCT. Approval subject to compliance w/ SGX listing requirements, independent CMT unitholders, & approval of court for implementation of trust. (Co)

MAS comments re ESR / Sabana REIT merger: rules don't bar hldrs from owning stakes in 2 REITs. (MAS)

URA tightening monitoring of a prop mkt practice that may be inflating home sales figures. (BT)

Singapore’s Straits Trading bought the 182,364ft2 Bourne Biz Park, UK for £76.7m ($101m). (Mingtiandi)

6 shops at Aljunied condo for sale, avg prices S$3,000/ft2 on strata areas b/f the 21% bulk discs. (BT)

Oxley 2H S$296.3m net loss despite gwth in gross profit. (BT)

Food caterer Neo Group to diversify into prop biz via JV w/ construction firm Boldtek. (BT)

Eagle Hospitality Trust said 1 independent director, Carl Gabriel Florian Stubbe, was not re-elected by the Reit mngrs' sh/ldr Mandarin West. (Biz Times)

MND: transformation of bldg sector w/ cleaner, higher quality & less manpower-intensive construction. (BT)

Australia / New Zealand

Syd CBD prime office rent cld 9% by mid-21, & more in Melb, as weakening demand, per Colliers. (AFR)

Centuria industrial says portfolio expands to a$2.1b; Reports settlement of two industrial assets


Japan Retail Fund / MCUBS MidCity boards resolved to undertake absorption-type merger Mar 1, 2021. JRF will be the surviving corp. 2-for-1 (MMI:JRF) unit splitF/c results of surviving corp for Mar 1-Aug 31, 2021: Operating rev 39.7b, operating income 16.7b, NI 59.7b, DPU 2,286.  (Co)

Gaw Capital acq’d Matsushita IMP office bldg in Osaka Biz for 39b ($360m). (Nikkei RE)

M&G acqd Midosuji Front Twr (leased by WeWork) for Y33b ($300m) from LaSalle’s SPC. (Nikkei RE)

Mitsubishi Estate Logistics REIT determined interest rates for 6.45b debt financing. (Co)

1H high-grade office rents in Fukuoka 6.7%YoY, Nagoya 5.4%, Osaka 3.7%. (Savills)

Simplex’s stake in Heiwa Real Estate to 11.22% from 9.97%. (Kabutan)


16 Noida RE devrs who failed to finish projects in time due to Covid will get rebate of avg Rs165m each; shld pass on the benefits to 22,064 buyers. (India Times)

Vietnam / Myanmar

Centara Hotels & Resorts to manage 3 new hotels in Myanmar. (Nation)


Bank of Korea 2020 GDP gwth f/c to -1.3% from -0.2%. (Korea Joongang Daily)



* My pa holdings: BAC US, 1 HK, 6 HK, ST SP, TEAM US, GOOGL US, AMZN US

Sarah Cooper

Managing Director

Global Head, Real Estate Equity Sales
BofA Securities
55/F Cheung Kong Center, 2 Queen's Road Central, Hong Kong

T 852.3508.4938 M 852.9301.1149



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